Friday Night 2-0 sweep
400-Unit NBA Book Blunder - DENVER NUGGETS
We just can't pass up getting this many points with such an offensively talented team like Denver. These are two teams that are very similar offensively so we'll gladly take the points tonight.
Last time the Nuggets went to Utah, they stayed right with the Jazz, losing 98-94 as eight-point underdogs. On January 25 they hosted the Jazz and got a 117-97 victory and easily covered as eight-point favorites.
The best thing to happen to the Nuggets and Carmelo Anthony might have been the one-game suspension coach George Karl levied against him. It showed Anthony he needed to grow up and he seemed to have gotten the idea on Thursday in the Nuggets win over the Blazers. Plus it showed the rest of the Nuggets they need to get their act together as this season winds down.
The Nuggets are 17-15 on the road this season and I know they just played on Thursday, but they have plenty of offensive talent to go around.
Utah has won nine straight, but covered in just one of the last three. They got a 101-94 win at home over the Rockets on Wednesday and failed to cover as an 8 1/2-point favorite.
This is just too many points to pass up tonight. Grab the points and play the Nuggets to easily come inside the number.
100-Unit NBA Marquee Matchup - CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
This is a big one when it comes to the top seed in the Eastern Conference as these two teams come into this one separated by just two games in the loss column for the top spot in the conference.
The home team has won the last 10 meetings between these two but the Cavaliers are 9-1 ATS in those 10 and they've already covered both meetings this season, winning 98-83 on Jan. 9 as four-point 'dogs and they cashed in Boston back on Oct. 28, losing 90-85 but cashing as a six-point underdog.
Cleveland has won four straight overall (3-1 ATS) and they are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games. Meanwhile the Celtics has alternated wins and losses in their last five games and they have gone 0-4 ATS in the alst four games, including two at home, failing to cover against the Pacers a week ago and then losing outright to the Pistons on Sunday 105-95 as 8 1/2-point favorites.
The Cavs should be able to take advantage on the inside with Anderson Varejo and Zadrunas Ilgauskas as the Celtics are still without Kevin Garnett. So the Celtics coming in without one of their big bullets is not a good thing.
Cleveland is 17-5-2 ATS in the last 24 series clashes and 13-3 ATS on Fridays, 45-20 ATS overall and 22-5 ATS against Atlantic Division teams. Let's go with the Cavs in this one as you know LeBron will step up his game tonight in this marquee matchup. Play the Cavs.
Chris Jordan
Friday sweep...
400♦ BRADLEY and 100♦ OVER Bradley/Southern Illinois - We have the two hottest teams in the Missouri Valley Conference going at it tonight, and in believing this tournament is up for grabs, I also think the Braves are the team to reckon with right now. Trust me, this event is bound to see some surprises. I'm not going to get much into your total analysis, except to tell you the numbers I crunch daily are on a nice little 4-1 run when they fall into place as 100♦ releases. And I have this game getting over the posted number.
I admit the Salukis have learned to play without senior guard Bryan Mullins, who's been sidelined since being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right foot last month, but this is still a team that forced to battle not only through injuries but also internal turmoil, which included player defections.
I think the Salukis - the preseason favorite to win this conference - will give Bradley a run for the victory in this one, which is where I see the total coming in, but the Braves are a scrappy bunch that pulled off a 17-13 mark overall and 10-8 record in conference play. And that was enduring some injuries of their own.
Looking insdie the betting numbers, Bradley comes into this one on ATS runs of 4-0 as the neutral-court chalk, 7-2 on Friday nights, 7-2 as the favorite and 8-3 when laying a number in this range. On the flipside, the Salukis are 2-5 ATS as an underdog, 3-9 when catching points in this range and 0-5 ATS on neutral courts.
With the total, the over has come in four straight times they've hooked up. The over is also on a 6-1 run with the Salukis, while the high number has come in five of the last six times Bradley has stepped on the wood.
100♦ PRINCETON - Under second-year coach Sydney Johnson, I sincerely like what I've seen from these Tigers. Princeton finished last in the Ivy League the season before Johnson’s arrival, and picked to finish once again this season, the Tigers roar into a three-game stretch tonight at Columbia and could very well come out of the jungle with their first Ivy title since 2004. Princeton enters these final three games of the regular-season campaign with a 7-4 Ivy record, trailing Cornell by 1-1/2 games, a margin it can slice into Saturday night when it visits Big Red.
But first up are the Lions, and Johnson admitted in one report that tonight is "our biggest game of the year. With all due respect to Cornell and Penn, nothing for us goes beyond Friday night and Columbia. We are prepared for a team that plays great at home, plays great defense. If we don’t have a good effort Friday, it’s going to be hard to keep that momentum going." Sometimes quotes say it best, and I take that one from the New York media because it sums it up best. I love the focus he's instilled, and love this number with Princeton.
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 100,000♦ Celtics
2. 50,000♦ Jazz
Back with your analysis by 2 pm ET.
Jeff Benton
Friday's Hoops winners ...
15 Dime: BOBCATS (minus the points vs. Hawks)
10 Dime: NOTRE DAME (minus the points vs. St. John's)
5 Dime: JAZZ (minus the points vs. Rockets)
Bobcats
Don’t look now, but the Charlotte Bobcats – yes, the Charlotte Bobcats – are making a push for the playoffs. Despite being nine games under .500, this once lowly franchise is just 1½ games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Charlotte comes into tonight playing its best basketball of the season, winning four straight games, the longest such streak since the Bobcats took five in a row to start March last year.
Granted, the four wins have come against the Kings, Warriors, Clippers and Bulls – in other words, not exactly the Lakers, Spurs, Cavs and Celtics. However, the first three of those victories came on the road on the West Coast, and the latter was Tuesday’s 96-80 romp over Chicago as a 1½-point home chalk.
The Bobcats have cashed in all four games during their four-game winning streak, going 3-0 ATS as a small favorite, too. And going back to Feb. 8, Charlotte has cashed in nine of its last 12 contests, going 4-1 ATS at home. In fact, the Bobcats – who have played 12 of their last 17 games on the highway – are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Admittedly, one of those three losses came against the Hawks, who have actually taken the first three meetings in this rivalry this season (2-1 ATS). However, those three contests were decided by margins of 6, 4 and 5 points. And prior to the Feb. 6 loss to the Hawks in Charlotte, the Bobcats had covered four straight and seven of nine against Atlanta. Furthermore, before last month’s meeting, the home team had won eight in a row SU between these teams, with the Bobcats going 4-0 SU and ATS at home!
Finally, while the Bobcats enter this game on a roll, the same absolutely cannot be said for the Hawks, who are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in their last nine games, including 2-5 SU and ATS on the road (the two SU road wins came at Washington and Sacramento – the two worst teams in the NBA!).
Look, I know Charlotte guard Raja Bell is questionable tonight with a biceps injury, and he’s certainly a key to the Bobcats’ recent offensive surge (over the last five games, they’re averaging 101.6 ppg on 49.1 percent shooting overall and 47.6 percent shooting from 3-point range). But Charlotte has been contributions up and down the bench during its recent run, and I expect the same tonight. You throw in the fact that this is Atlanta’s ninth road game in its last 12 contests – all since Feb. 11 – and I’ll gladly lay this cheap number with rapidly improving Charlotte.
Notre Dame
Two nights ago, I told you the oddsmakers were setting a trap when they made Pitt, which had failed to cover in six of eight games against Marquette, a 10-point home favorite against the No. 13 Golden Eagles and said the Panthers would cover the number with ease. They did.
Last night, I told you the oddsmakers were setting a trap when they made Xavier, which lost by 12 points at Dayton last month, a 10-point home favorite against the Flyers, stressing that the Musketeers would be out to prove a point and would blow Dayton out of the water. They did.
Tonight, I’m telling you once again that the oddsmakers are setting a trap with this Notre Dame-St. John’s pointspread. You’ve got the Irish in a 4-10 SU slump and they’ve failed to cover in 12 of their last 15 games, going 3-11 ATS in Big East play during this rut. At the same time, St. John’s has cashed in five of its last six games, including five straight as an underdog, and the Red Storm have evened their season record by winning three of their last four outright. Oh yeah, and St. John’s upset Notre Dame 71-65 as an 8½-point ‘dog on Jan. 3.
And yet despite all this, Vegas has made Notre Dame, which is coming off a 17-point home loss to Villanova in its most important game of the season, an 11½-point favorite? Gotta be a reason, right? Indeed there is. This is the Irish’s last home game of the season, and don’t think for a second that doesn’t mean something – just look at Pitt and Xavier, who posted double-digit routs on Senior Night the last two days.
Also, there’s the simple fact that, despite the result when these teams met two months ago and despite both squads’ recent performances, Notre Dame still had a massive edge in talent. Don’t forget, this is the same Irish team that beat Texas in Maui back in November and hammered Louisville 90-57 at home to halt an eight-game losing skid 2½ weeks ago. At the same time, St. John’s lost its first eight road games of the season (1-7 ATS), including its first seven Big East road contests before breaking through against DePaul on Saturday – that would be the same DePaul that hasn’t won a game in conference play!
The Red Storm’s seven Big East losses were by margins of 21 (Providence), 23 (Pitt), 19 (Villanova), 23 (West Virginia), 10 (Seton Hall) and 14 (Marquette), and they also fell at Boston College by 12 points in their first road game. I’m telling you guys, Notre Dame and its seniors will come to play tonight and the Irish will be motivated to end a most disappointing regular season – and carry SOME kind of momentum in next week’s Big East tournament – with an empathic victory. Play the Fighting Irish minus the points.
Jazz
Speaking of “trap” lines, the Jazz are 38-23 on the season, but still 1½ games behind first-place Denver in the Northwest Division … and yet, Utah is a near double-digit chalk tonight against the Nuggets. Gee, Denver seems almost too easy here, doesn’t it? Hey, you know the old saying: If something looks too good to be true, it probably is, and that cliché definitely applies here.
For one thing, Utah has won nine straight games overall, going 7-2 ATS. The Jazz have also taken 10 in a row at home, and prior to not covering in its last two home wins over the Kings and Rockets (by a combined six points, mind you), it had covered in eight consecutive contests in Salt Lake City. And get this: The Jazz have scored at least 100 points in six straight overall, eight of nine and 14 of 16.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost four straight road games both SU and ATS, and despite last night’s impressive home win over Portland, they’re just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests. Also, Denver is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog, 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 as a pup of 5 to 10½ points, and they haven’t cashed in four of their last five back-to-back spots.
On the other hand, Utah has been money in the bank as a favorite (10-3 ATS last 13), at home (59-29-2 last 90), on Friday (7-1 last eight) and when playing after a day’s respite (4-0 last four). Add it all up, and it’s easy to understand this big number. Lay it!
Karl Garrett
20 DIMER - PHOENIX SUNS....10 DIMER - TOWSON STATE TIGERS
20 DIMER - PHOENIX SUNS
Points work tonight, as Phoenix is 0-for-2 on their current 4-game road swing which still has a stop in San Antonio to go!
Look for the Suns to come out strong, as they do have a "payback" issue on the docket, losing by a dozen at home to the Rockets in the middle of November.
Yes, Houston has been the hotter team of late, but the Rockets are still just .500 at home this year, where they are 15-15-1 against the math.
G-Man can't back this play up with any more statistical copy, as much of it is negative for my play on the Suns, but I can tell you my "spider sense" says that if the Suns losing streak hits 3 in a row, it is going to be in heartbreaking fashion.
Take the points, as this one stays close.
10 DIMER - TOWSON STATE TIGERS
On a neutral floor, can't see Drexel blowing out this Towson team.
Drexel comes into the Colonial Tournament off of losses in their last pair of games, and 5 of their last 8 overall. The Dragons have also failed in 4 of their last 6 when laying points.
The Tigers suffered the season series sweep at the hands of the Dragons both straight up, and against the spread, as the series losing streak is now at 3 in a row for Towson. Still, I like the Tigers in this neutral court battle to take it down to the wire, as Towson has shown some spunk of late, covering their last 2 games of the regular season, both in the dog role, and the Tigers are also 4-2 their last 6 when catching points.
Let's call it a Drexel 4-point win, but NO COVER!
Take the points.
Sports Gambling Hotline
CHARLOTTE SERVICE
For Friday, Top-Rated 3♦ on Phoenix plus the points. Bonus 2♦s on Atlanta as the small dog, and a college 2♦ on Wichita State plus the points.
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